-17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 10 to That Wed-PM/Thu-AM rainband looks the heaviest with rain lasting a good part of the day Thursday, clearing Friday. Local Interest And another pocket of warming waters were in the far West Pacific at 125E at +5 degs. Swell holding Sun (5/7) at 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). At Santa Cruz surf was chest high and lined up and clean with decent form but pretty soft. On Thurs AM (5/4) southwest winds to be fading from 35-40 kts with seas 26 ft at 40S 132W aimed northeast. And Sea Surface Temperatures are warming to neutral. veering to W in the eveningbacking to SW after midnight. Warm temps continued west from there on the equator across the dateline and beyond. A continued small mix of leftover swells is expected. Both before and during deliveries, ocean races, regattas, cruises and all other types of offshore passages, we have your whole route covered. Level up to Premium to unlock this and other useful features: Long-range forecasts are available to DeepSwell Premium members. 6 ft. THU Satellite Imagery Oahu: Expect swell arrival late on Mon (5/1) building to 2.1 ft @ 17 secs right before sunset (3.5 ft). Surf along south facing shores will ease today as a south swell that recently peaked moves out. IRI Consensus Plume: The April 19, 2023 Plume depicts temps are +0.434 degs today and it's the second month above the La Nina threshold. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning. Wind waves Also called 'Background' swell. Swell W 5 to N wind 20 to 25 kteasing to 10 to 15 kt in the Brookings southward, NW wind 10 to 15 kteasing to 5 to 10 kt W wind 5 kt. On Thursday (2/24) locally generated windswell was hitting California and Hawaii with remnant Dateline swell fading in Hawaii too. Thermal inversion will be absent thanks to the incoming cold air, but the onshore flow and moisture being drawn into SoCal will keep May Gray in place. 2023 Snow-Forecast.com | Privacy | Cookie Policy. Winds That swell will be showing the dominant energy for the majority of the breaks, but that WNW swell will still be hanging in there too. Most south facing spots were running waist to chest high. South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height, LONG-TERM FORECAST Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) The 30 day average was rising at -1.20 after falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. Swell from it is poised for Hawaii. Swell NW 8 to 9 ft at 9 seconds. Oahu: Swell fading on Thurs AM (2/24) from 2.6 ft @ 12 secs early (3.0 ft). Rain limited to Cape Mendocino through the day and evening. On Thurs AM (2/24) fetch was fading from 30 kts from the west on the dateline with seas fading from 27 ft at 39N 173E aimed east. The jet was split east of 155W with the northern branch weak and pushing towards British Columbia but not reaching there yet. Overview Map overlays available for display: Global-Pacific Pressure, Wind. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook. NW wind 15 to 20 kteasing to 5 to 10 kt late in the Maybe some small sideband swell to result for North CA. The East Shore was chest high and lightly chopped from moderate east trades. 40. Jetstream //-->, Issued sgi_ord=Math.random()*10000000000000000; Water temps appear to be warming over the entire East Pacific, though still in La Nina territory for the moment. Condition-wise: a showery week ahead with measurable rain some days; winds trend onshore until later in the week; tide levels are moderate; and water temps are fair. Wave forecasts are available for a number of sub-regions of Australian waters using the high resolution Auswave Regional model. Beyond 72 hours no meaningful swell producing weather systems are forecast. Surface Water Temps of more interest is swell pushing east originating from a broad system that developed just off the Kuril Islands Mon-Tues (2/22) producing 39 ft seas aimed east then dissipating before reaching the dateline. Chance of showers. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean): www.gidy.fr. Swell continues Thurs (5/4) at 2.6 ft @ 15 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell holding Sat (5/6) at 2.1 ft @ 16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Protected breaks were near chest high and fairly clean but with some light texture on it and closed out and soft. The last link in the chain is to see the SOI falling (which it is showing preliminary signs of doing). The trend of late has been towards positive readings. No cool waters were on the equator anymore. Alternatively, visit our basic swell maps of Pacific-Ocean where each view becomes a separate image. 30, 2023 6:45 AM The compact winds around the center may temper the size for other locations around the Pacific, but the storm's extra-long tail ensures there's a long run of swell. TUE NIGHT Still, neither of these forecasts seems realistic (see IRI Consensus forecast below). WED NIGHT On Sunday (4/30) California was getting some background northwest swell mixed with fading southwest swell originating from a gale that developed southeast of New Zealand Tues-Wed (4/19) producing up to 39 ft seas aimed northeast. View static weather maps of Pacific-Ocean of wind, precipitation, temperature and cloud. There could definitely be a few good corners with this mix of swells. Swell should be angled from around 305-315 with periods 14 seconds from the ground swell and 8-10 seconds from wind swell. On Tues AM (2/22) west winds were 40-45 kts half way to the dateline with seas 39 ft at 38.75N 162.5E aimed east. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). Beyond 72 hours starting Fri AM (4/5) another gale is to be right behind over the Southeast Pacific with 40-45 kts south winds and seas building from 28 ft at 54.25S 142.25W aimed northeast. Important: JavaScript support must be turned on in order to use these animated swell maps. Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 190 and 13 seconds from 290. And Westerly Winds are fully established filling the KWGA and forecast filling the Pacific over the next month. SUN SW wind 10 to 20 kt. In the evening 50-55 kt westerly winds are to be just west of the dateline with 38 ft seas at 44.5N 173.5E aimed east. Summer - up to waist high swell. All this signals the demise of La Nina. SST Anomaly Projections Boston, MA: Eastport, ME to South of New England. : See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page). Important: JavaScript support must be turned on in order to use these animated swell maps. On Sunday (4/30) North and Central CA had sets at chest high and a mushed mess with whitecaps and chop. This is a clear El Nino signal. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. The area of the region Centre is 39 150,94 km . Pacific Beach (PB) long range surf forecast for swell, wind, tide and weather conditions updated multiple times daily. Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations). As southern hemisphere ground swell lingers from the most recent Antarctic swell, NW ground swell is already starting to fill in from that system that, although initially sitting just 1,100 nautical miles from SoCal, will dive south into SoCal as a cut-off low shortly (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data): That low is now diving south and starting to cut off from the jetstream, visible from space this morning on NOAA satellite (image from NOAA GOES): Circled in red we can see that cut-off low, starved of moisture, but with enough being drawn into it to bring rain to SoCal this week. Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/23): neutral trend was occurring from Ecuador west on the equator to the dateline. 218 AM PDT Mon May 1 2023. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm Summer - Chest to head high. 12 ft at 12 seconds. Global-Pacific wave (swell) map for surfers, windsurfers and sailors showing open ocean wave size, wave period and wave energy. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. In the evening 40 kt northwest winds were off the Pacific Northwest with 27 ft seas at 42.5N 138.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale was fading over the dateline with 25 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 20 ft at 35N 179E aimed southeast. Kelvin Wave #2 in Flight - Active MJO #3 Strong - Equatorial Sea Surface Temps Rising Fast The population density of the region Centre is 64,36 inhabitants per km. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. afternoon. showers and steep seas will continue into Tuesday, along with West Central North Atlantic continental shelf and slope waters. for Week of Monday 2/21 thru Sun 2/27, Solid Swell Hitting Hawaii West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. TODAY But in late Fall 2022 trades started fading a by early 22023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina subsurface cold temperatures are rapidly collapsing while being pushed east by the Kelvin Wave. Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/24) Today's temps were up some at -1.367 after rising to -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. TODAY On Thursday (2/24) the jet was consolidated pushing firmly east off Japan on the 36N latitude line with winds to 190 kts pushing flat over the dateline to 155W not forming any troughs though still supportive of gale development just based on wind speeds alone. In the evening fetch was fading from 30 kts approaching the dateline with seas 29 ft near at 40N 173E. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. The North Pacific is looking slow in the longer range as expected, so focus is shifted towards the South Pacific now. The East Shore was thigh high and chopped with moderate east trades. The gale is to move in land from there. 6 to 7 ft. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. Information Quality Swell W 5 to W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds. 34.6 N / -76.2 . You can customize the wave and wind maps with overlays for wind arrows, pressure and general weather for surfing. Onshores are expected this afternoon to 15 mph. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. Eglise Notre Dame. As you start to walk on the way, the way appears. In the evening 45 kts west winds were pushing east with seas building to 30 ft over a tiny area at 45.5N 157E aimed east and a long ways from Hawaii. Wind waves 2 ft or less NW wind 5 kt. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations). A gale developed in the Southwestern Pacific with swell from it fading in California (see Southwestern Pacific Gale below). You are not a drop in the ocean. Saturday the 13th (building day) into Sunday the 14th could see the next southern hemisphere ground swell as models like the idea of another storm breaking off Antarctica in a similar position as the one for the middle of next week (model by FNMOC): Based on 144-hour models, this would bring chest+ sets to south facing breaks, angled from 195 with periods 16 seconds. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit. Friday should then revert with AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph. This Loiret geographical article is a stub. On Fri AM (4/28) west winds were 40 kts about half way to the dateline with seas 31 ft at 43.5N 162.75E aimed east. La Nina is solid but appears to be fading focused over the equatorial East Pacific. Swell fading Sun (5/7) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). 1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/30) Weak west anomalies were over the far west KWGA with moderate east anomalies filling the bulk of the KWGA. This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date. Remember, this report is only made possible by donations from readers like you (see why), which ensures this report will be here when you need it. And warmer than normal temps were present well off the coasts of Chile and Peru and building in intensity and weaker over the entirety of the deep South Pacific. Today (Sunday the 30th) we have a light to moderate mix of NW and SW ground swells in SoCal. Wind waves 3 ft. The South Shore had sets at waist high and lined up and clean with decent form. Swell and SW 1 ft in the afternoon. Pacific Decadal Oscillation Fetch was fading in the evening from 35-40 kts from the south with seas 34 ft at 55S 145.5W aimed northeast. WED An area of warm water was holding just north of the equator across the entire North Pacific. A broad gale started building over and just east of the Kuril Islands and North Japan on Sun PM (2/20) generating a fetch of 45 kt west winds with seas building from 27 ft at 39.75N 150E aimed east. and westward 60 nm. 16-day surf forecast for Waikiki in Oahu - South Shore. Unfortunately again, most mornings do look to start out with some onshore southerly wind. IRI Consensus Plume: The Feb 18, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.704 degs today and have bottomed out. KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E) Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/23) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. You can now get all the best MSW features and more on Surfline. Swell building some on Sun (2/27) to 6.0 ft @ 17 secs late (9.6 ft). Just a minor mix of south swell and NW windswell expected. By browsing Magicseaweed, you agree to our use of cookies. Showers likely. Subscribe to be notified: Surface Analysis Another gale is forecast developing in the Southeast Pacific Tues-Thurs (5/4) with up to 30 ft seas aimed north. Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast. TODAY All NOAA, Coastal Waters Forecast 205 PM PDT Fri Apr 28 2023. On Sat AM (4/29) 45 kt northwest winds were building well off the Pacific Northwest with seas 25 ft at 44N 143W aimed southeast. Surf is now declining back to tiny levels with just minor levels of background swell expected from tradewinds in the South Pacific- around a foot at the most exposed Burnett breaks, tiny elsewhere. Taking the GFS and to some degree the ECMWF into account, I'd call for drizzle Monday morning along the coast; light rain sometime Tuesday morning from LA north (dry in OC and SD); then mostly dry Wednesday day, but with rain Wednesday late afternoon or evening into Thursday for most of SoCal, spreading from north to south.

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